tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:54 pm at Sacramento)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 19:20, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching New York on time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
B6 162 JetBlue Flight history → SMF 23:05 JFK 07:29 37% 13% 1.0% 72%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SMF 16:13 → PHX 18:16AA 6354 · flown by SkyWest 3h 34m Phoenix PHX 21:50 → JFK 05:47 +1AA 1587 10h 34m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → SMF 18:55 → LAX 20:39DL 3712 · flown by SkyWest 2h 06m Los Angeles LAX 22:45 → JFK 07:03 +1DL 676 9h 08m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → SMF 19:20 → SLC 22:02DL 2585 1h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 23:59 → JFK 06:18 +1DL 705 7h 58m 87% 74%
AmericanDetails → SMF 19:21 → LAX 21:01AA 6346 · flown by SkyWest 1h 22m Los Angeles LAX 22:23 → JFK 07:00 +1AA 30 8h 39m 89% 67%
DeltaDetails → SMF 17:20 → SEA 19:25DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest 3h 15m Seattle SEA 22:40 → JFK 06:50 +1DL 452 10h 30m 95% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON