Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2178 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 2178 SMF 06:15 → LAS 07:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest F9 4144 SMF 12:38 → LAS 14:18 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2178 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 06:15	LAS 07:40	5%	1%	0.2%	100%
WN 4360 Southwest	SMF 06:50	LAS 08:21	5%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 3919 Southwest	SMF 05:30	LAS 07:01	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 3784 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 05:25	LAS 06:50	5%	1%	0.2%	96%
WN 4466 Southwest	SMF 08:07	LAS 09:39	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1241 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 07:05	LAS 08:30	8%	2%	0.2%	93%
WN 1285 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 10:55	LAS 12:25	14%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 1940 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 10:37	LAS 12:09	15%	2%	0.5%	73%
WN 3788 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 20:45	LAS 22:15	20%	6%	0.6%	65%
WN 4278 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 12:20	LAS 13:50	21%	3%	0.5%	73%
WN 775 Southwest	SMF 15:20	LAS 16:52	22%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2755 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 15:30	LAS 17:00	23%	4%	0.6%	76%
WN 3786 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 18:50	LAS 20:20	23%	5%	0.6%	75%
WN 1324 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 19:50	LAS 21:20	23%	5%	0.6%	58%
WN 3928 Southwest	SMF 13:05	LAS 14:36	23%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 374 Southwest	SMF 14:00	LAS 15:32	23%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2513 Southwest	SMF 18:25	LAS 19:56	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4116 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 17:55	LAS 19:25	25%	6%	0.6%	56%
WN 2221 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 16:35	LAS 18:05	25%	5%	0.6%	35%
WN 2634 Southwest	SMF 16:55	LAS 18:26	26%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 2070 Frontier Flight history →	SMF 18:28	LAS 20:00	30%	10%	1.2%	84%worse than usual
F9 4144 Frontier Flight history →	SMF 12:38	LAS 14:18	35%	10%	0.9%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON