tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:08 am at Sacramento); 11 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Today: DL 3755 at 11:17 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–39%.

Safest bet today DL 3755 SMF 11:17 → LAX 12:56 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 3316 SMF 19:44 → LAX 21:20 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time
Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 11 flights that already left today are not shown.
DL 3755 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → SMF 11:17 LAX 12:56 13% 4% 0.3% 94%
OO 6279 SkyWest SMF 11:44 LAX 13:18 15% 4% 0.3% no record
OO 5259 SkyWest SMF 16:02 LAX 17:39 16% 4% 0.3% no record
DL 3812 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → SMF 14:15 LAX 15:52 17% 4% 0.2% 91%
DL 3759 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → SMF 20:50 LAX 22:44 17% 4% 0.3% 90%
OO 6278 SkyWest SMF 19:29 LAX 21:16 17% 4% 0.4% no record
WN 2472 Southwest SMF 17:55 LAX 19:29 18% 4% 0.2% no record
UA 5628 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SMF 18:47 LAX 20:39 18% 4% 0.4% 99%worse than usual
DL 3712 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → SMF 18:55 LAX 20:39 19% 4% 0.4% 89%
AA 6346 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → SMF 19:21 LAX 21:01 20% 4% 0.4% 84%
WN 4844 Southwest Flight history → SMF 12:15 LAX 13:45 20% 3% 0.2% 72%
WN 3792 Southwest Flight history → SMF 14:55 LAX 16:25 21% 4% 0.2% 73%
WN 636 Southwest SMF 20:45 LAX 22:18 22% 6% 0.2% no record
WN 2394 Southwest Flight history → SMF 17:15 LAX 18:45 22% 5% 0.2% 46%
WN 2368 Southwest SMF 14:25 LAX 15:59 24% 4% 0.2% no record
WN 3793 Southwest Flight history → SMF 20:45 LAX 22:15 25% 7% 0.2% 50%
WN 3935 Southwest SMF 12:12 LAX 13:10 26% 3% 0.2% no record
F9 3316 Frontier Flight history → SMF 19:44 LAX 21:20 39% 13% 1.1% 73%worse than usual
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON