Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Today: WN 3794 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–21%.

Safest bet today WN 3794 SMF 06:20 → LGB 07:50 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest WN 2485 SMF 16:15 → LGB 17:40 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3794 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 06:20	LGB 07:50	5%	2%	0.2%	80%
WN 749 Southwest	SMF 06:45	LGB 08:22	6%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 3795 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 09:55	LGB 11:25	10%	3%	0.4%	83%
WN 1195 Southwest	SMF 09:16	LGB 10:53	10%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 1091 Southwest	SMF 12:31	LGB 14:07	16%	5%	0.4%	no record
WN 3941 Southwest	SMF 18:40	LGB 20:16	19%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 4934 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 19:35	LGB 21:05	19%	6%	0.5%	82%
WN 2414 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 13:10	LGB 14:40	19%	5%	0.4%	96%worse than usual
WN 1198 Southwest	SMF 16:30	LGB 18:06	19%	6%	0.4%	no record
WN 2485 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 16:15	LGB 17:40	21%	6%	0.4%	91%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON