tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3798 Southwest Flight history → SMF 11:50 MCI 17:00 18% 3% 0.5% 71%
WN 3942 Southwest SMF 15:05 MCI 20:30 22% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 21m Denver DEN 09:43 → MCI 12:30UA 2159 5h 30m 98% 87%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 05:25 → LAS 06:50WN 3784 55m Las Vegas LAS 07:45 → MCI 12:35WN 2323 5h 10m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 3h 34m Houston IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa 9h 32m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 2h 07m Minneapolis MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613 6h 59m 97% 85%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 05:55 → DEN 09:15WN 3773 3h 15m Denver DEN 12:30 → MCI 15:05WN 351 7h 10m 100% 82%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 05:15 → MDW 11:10WN 2728 3h 15m Chicago MDW 14:25 → MCI 15:57WN 2915 8h 42m 100% 82%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 12:00 → MDW 17:55WN 3769 2h 35m Chicago MDW 20:30 → MCI 22:05WN 1482 8h 05m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 2h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 6h 27m 97% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:10 → SFO 15:33UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 56m San Francisco SFO 16:29 → MCI 22:15UA 1515 6h 05m 71% 51%
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:17 → ORD 20:33UA 2766 52m Chicago ORD 21:25 → MCI 23:17UA 4723 · flown by SkyWest 7h 00m 58% 46%
AmericanDetails → SMF 11:02 → DFW 16:35AA 2633 1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:53 → MCI 19:34AA 2267 6h 32m 72% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON