tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3799 Southwest Flight history → SMF 22:10 MCO 06:15 19% 5% 0.9% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SMF 17:00 → SLC 19:41DL 1342 3h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069 10h 00m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SMF 18:47 → LAX 20:39UA 5628 · flown by SkyWest 2h 25m Los Angeles LAX 23:04 → MCO 07:03 +1UA 1730 9h 16m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 48m Denver DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354 8h 04m 99% 82%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 10:25 → STL 16:05WN 920 3h 55m St Louis STL 20:00 → MCO 23:30WN 3950 10h 05m 100% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 17:08 → SEA 19:07AS 683 2h 26m Seattle SEA 21:33 → MCO 06:16 +1AS 394 10h 08m 98% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 16:43 → SAN 18:20AS 2406 · flown by Horizon 2h 46m San Diego SAN 21:06 → MCO 05:18 +1AS 707 9h 35m 98% 80%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 12:00 → MDW 17:55WN 3769 3h 00m Chicago MDW 20:55 → MCO 00:35 +1WN 2821 9h 35m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → SMF 11:17 → LAX 12:56DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest 3h 09m Los Angeles LAX 16:05 → MCO 00:07 +1DL 718 9h 50m 100% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SMF 12:20 → LAS 13:50WN 4278 50m Las Vegas LAS 14:40 → MCO 22:25WN 1225 7h 05m 62% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON