Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2728 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 2728 SMF 05:15 → MDW 11:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 3769 SMF 12:00 → MDW 17:55 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2728 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 05:15	MDW 11:10	6%	1%	0.6%	93%
WN 298 Southwest	SMF 05:15	MDW 11:15	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3945 Southwest	SMF 00:05	MDW 05:53	12%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 3802 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 23:50	MDW 05:45	15%	3%	0.6%	91%
WN 3769 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 12:00	MDW 17:55	18%	3%	0.5%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON