Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 2229 SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1788 SMF 13:16 → MSP 18:48 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2229 Delta Flight history →	SMF 06:15	MSP 11:38	7%	2%	0.4%	92%
DL 1701 Delta Flight history →	SMF 13:19	MSP 18:48	13%	3%	0.7%	96%
DL 1788 Delta	SMF 13:16	MSP 18:48	13%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON