Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Today: WN 969 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–25%.

Safest bet today WN 969 SMF 06:05 → ONT 07:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 480 SMF 17:30 → ONT 18:55 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 969 Southwest	SMF 06:05	ONT 07:40	5%	1%	0.3%	no record
WN 4911 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 06:00	ONT 07:20	7%	1%	0.3%	97%
WN 3948 Southwest	SMF 11:50	ONT 13:25	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3947 Southwest	SMF 09:50	ONT 11:26	13%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 3805 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 09:10	ONT 10:30	13%	2%	0.2%	92%
WN 300 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 12:00	ONT 13:25	16%	3%	0.5%	71%
WN 3949 Southwest	SMF 14:00	ONT 15:35	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3807 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 14:00	ONT 15:20	19%	3%	0.6%	83%
WN 1095 Southwest	SMF 19:00	ONT 20:35	19%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 3950 Southwest	SMF 16:15	ONT 17:50	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3955 Southwest	SMF 20:45	ONT 22:19	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 4984 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 20:55	ONT 22:20	23%	6%	0.5%	66%
WN 3808 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 16:15	ONT 17:35	25%	4%	0.5%	38%
WN 480 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 17:30	ONT 18:55	25%	5%	0.5%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON