Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1148 at 23:43 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 1148 SMF 23:43 → ORD 05:54 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 2797 SMF 14:18 → ORD 20:22 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1148 United Flight history →	SMF 23:43	ORD 05:54	12%	3%	0.7%	87%
UA 1278 United Flight history →	SMF 09:42	ORD 15:54	12%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 3060 American Flight history →	SMF 23:10	ORD 05:36	13%	4%	1.3%	94%
UA 2370 United Flight history →	SMF 07:00	ORD 13:10	16%	4%	0.5%	87%
AA 2627 American Flight history →	SMF 15:05	ORD 21:35	24%	6%	1.0%	67%
AA 2735 American	SMF 14:01	ORD 20:19	26%	6%	1.2%	no record
UA 2766 United Flight history →	SMF 14:17	ORD 20:33	28%	6%	0.6%	61%
UA 2797 United	SMF 14:18	ORD 20:22	30%	6%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SMF 13:36 → SLC 16:13DL 1423	1h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29DL 2413	5h 53m	87%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON