Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1200 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1200 SMF 05:45 → PDX 07:27 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3813 SMF 18:05 → PDX 19:35 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1200 Southwest	SMF 05:45	PDX 07:27	4%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 4099 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 05:20	PDX 06:50	6%	1%	0.1%	95%
AS 338 Alaska	SMF 08:02	PDX 09:42	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 949 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 10:05	PDX 11:35	11%	2%	0.4%	88%
AS 3003 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 11:53	PDX 13:38	13%	5%	0.7%	85%
AS 621 Alaska Flight history →	SMF 11:46	PDX 13:18	14%	2%	0.7%	100%worse than usual
AS 720 Alaska	SMF 18:15	PDX 19:56	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3314 Southwest	SMF 12:25	PDX 14:07	15%	3%	0.4%	no record
AS 675 Alaska	SMF 14:54	PDX 16:35	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 309 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 21:50	PDX 23:25	18%	6%	0.4%	73%
WN 3957 Southwest	SMF 19:00	PDX 20:42	22%	5%	0.4%	no record
AS 1600 Alaska Flight history →	SMF 14:55	PDX 16:27	22%	3%	0.7%	75%
WN 422 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 14:15	PDX 15:45	23%	3%	0.4%	88%worse than usual
WN 3813 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 18:05	PDX 19:35	25%	5%	0.4%	46%
AS 2095 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SMF 08:13	PDX 09:47	9%	4%	1.5%	91%
AS 2335 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SMF 19:17	PDX 20:50	33%	10%	1.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON