Today: WN 3815 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–29%.

Safest bet today WN 3815 SMF 05:10 → PHX 07:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3027 SMF 19:17 → PHX 21:17 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3815 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 05:10	PHX 07:05	7%	1%	0.3%	94%
WN 3959 Southwest	SMF 05:22	PHX 06:46	7%	1%	0.3%	no record
AA 1867 American Flight history →	SMF 06:00	PHX 07:55	10%	3%	0.4%	93%
MQ 4215 Envoy	SMF 10:02	PHX 12:06	11%	3%	0.4%	no record
AA 4099 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SMF 09:52	PHX 11:50	12%	3%	0.4%	88%
WN 106 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 07:45	PHX 09:35	15%	1%	0.3%	92%
WN 4190 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 21:15	PHX 23:15	18%	6%	0.5%	91%
MQ 4220 Envoy	SMF 16:16	PHX 18:17	19%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1280 Southwest	SMF 11:10	PHX 13:12	20%	3%	0.2%	no record
AA 2630 American Flight history →	SMF 12:56	PHX 14:50	21%	7%	0.2%	72%
WN 3960 Southwest	SMF 12:30	PHX 14:31	22%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 1677 American Flight history →	SMF 13:08	PHX 15:09	22%	6%	0.2%	86%
WN 3816 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 13:55	PHX 15:55	23%	4%	0.2%	69%
WN 4285 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 19:50	PHX 21:45	25%	6%	0.5%	57%
WN 3961 Southwest	SMF 17:20	PHX 19:21	25%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 4371 Southwest	SMF 19:15	PHX 21:17	26%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 3231 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 16:40	PHX 18:35	27%	5%	0.5%	44%
AA 6354 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 16:13	PHX 18:16	27%	9%	0.7%	75%
WN 4282 Southwest	SMF 14:20	PHX 16:22	28%	5%	0.2%	no record
AA 3027 American	SMF 19:17	PHX 21:17	29%	8%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON