Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1104 SMF 08:15 → PSP 09:53 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1717 SMF 17:01 → PSP 18:39 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1104 Southwest	SMF 08:15	PSP 09:53	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2189 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 07:45	PSP 09:15	8%	2%	0.5%	95%
WN 1717 Southwest	SMF 17:01	PSP 18:39	15%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON