Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Today: UA 1954 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–30%.

Safest bet today UA 1954 SMF 06:00 → SFO 06:54 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 5961 SMF 19:03 → SFO 20:10 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1954 United Flight history →	SMF 06:00	SFO 06:54	10%	3%	0.5%	93%
UA 1329 United	SMF 05:58	SFO 07:05	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 5218 SkyWest	SMF 11:51	SFO 13:13	23%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 5248 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 11:46	SFO 12:53	25%	10%	0.8%	57%
UA 5323 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 14:10	SFO 15:33	30%	11%	0.7%	56%
UA 5961 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 19:03	SFO 20:10	30%	10%	0.8%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON