Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops
Today: WN 3563 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–18%.
Against a calm day
14%
average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day
Every nonstop today
12-month record →Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
| WN 3563 Southwest | SMF 06:15 | SNA 07:54 | 5% | 3% | 0.4% | no record |
| WN 3829 Southwest Flight history → | SMF 06:10 | SNA 07:35 | 7% | 3% | 0.4% | 94% |
| WN 3979 Southwest | SMF 11:35 | SNA 13:14 | 12% | 3% | 0.5% | no record |
| WN 503 Southwest Flight history → | SMF 20:55 | SNA 22:33 | 13% | 3% | 0.5% | 83% |
| WN 3831 Southwest Flight history → | SMF 11:50 | SNA 13:20 | 14% | 3% | 0.5% | 62% |
| WN 3329 Southwest Flight history → | SMF 09:00 | SNA 10:30 | 15% | 4% | 0.4% | 96%worse than usual |
| WN 3981 Southwest | SMF 15:50 | SNA 17:29 | 15% | 4% | 0.5% | no record |
| WN 3978 Southwest | SMF 09:35 | SNA 11:14 | 15% | 4% | 0.4% | no record |
| WN 2738 Southwest Flight history → | SMF 13:20 | SNA 14:50 | 16% | 3% | 0.5% | 80% |
| WN 3980 Southwest | SMF 14:14 | SNA 15:53 | 16% | 4% | 0.5% | no record |
| WN 3982 Southwest | SMF 17:55 | SNA 19:33 | 16% | 4% | 0.5% | no record |
| WN 3833 Southwest Flight history → | SMF 15:50 | SNA 17:20 | 17% | 4% | 0.5% | 84% |
| WN 3832 Southwest Flight history → | SMF 14:50 | SNA 16:20 | 17% | 4% | 0.5% | 74% |
| WN 3834 Southwest Flight history → | SMF 18:30 | SNA 20:00 | 18% | 4% | 0.5% | 75% |
About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON