Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:55 am at Santa Ana)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 44%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: WN 345 at 11:50, 40%.

Nonstops today


WN 345 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 11:50	AUS 16:50	40%	8%	0.6%	81%worse than usual
WN 3985 Southwest	SNA 15:20	AUS 20:17	48%	9%	0.6%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SNA 15:00 → SJC 16:20WN 3863	3h 05m San Jose	SJC 19:25 → AUS 00:55 +1WN 3792	7h 55m	100%	74%
United Details →	SNA 12:04 → IAH 17:37UA 2044	2h 41m Houston	IAH 20:18 → AUS 21:25UA 2621	7h 21m	97%	73%
United Details →	SNA 14:47 → SFO 16:18UA 2823	2h 09m San Francisco	SFO 18:27 → AUS 00:13 +1UA 2126	7h 26m	94%	72%
Southwest Details →	SNA 07:05 → PHX 08:30WN 3887	1h 00m Phoenix	PHX 09:30 → AUS 13:52WN 3351	4h 47m	100%	72%
United Details →	SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700	1h 13m Houston	IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:29UA 6118 · flown by Mesa	5h 44m	90%	71%
Delta Details →	SNA 12:50 → MSP 18:33DL 2061	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 19:45 → AUS 22:25DL 2749	7h 35m	87%	70%
American Details →	SNA 06:46 → DFW 12:02AA 1382	1h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:55 → AUS 15:00AA 3726 · flown by Envoy	6h 14m	96%	69%
Southwest Details →	SNA 13:30 → SJC 14:50WN 3862	3h 35m San Jose	SJC 18:25 → AUS 23:55WN 4210	8h 25m	100%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SNA 14:09 → SEA 16:59DL 952	51m Seattle	SEA 17:50 → AUS 23:53DL 848	7h 44m	37%	28%
American Details →	SNA 14:24 → DFW 19:44AA 2684	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:33 → AUS 21:37AA 2707	5h 13m	27%	16%
Alaska Details →	SNA 14:45 → SEA 17:32AS 760	47m Seattle	SEA 18:19 → AUS 00:31 +1AS 372	7h 46m	22%	15%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON