Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Today: AS 239 at 12:18 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–34%.

Safest bet today AS 239 SNA 12:18 → BOI 15:29 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G4 3214 SNA 13:43 → BOI 16:56 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 239 Alaska	SNA 12:18	BOI 15:29	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1606 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 12:33	BOI 15:39	16%	3%	0.7%	87%
G4 3214 Allegiant	SNA 13:43	BOI 16:56	34%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON