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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via SFO, leaving 18:20, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 18:20 → SFO 19:51UA 2657 2h 49m San Francisco SFO 22:40 → BWI 07:10 +1UA 1340 9h 50m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 2h 12m Chicago ORD 15:21 → BWI 18:26UA 2737 8h 41m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SNA 11:40 → DTW 19:06DL 1856 2h 39m Detroit DTW 21:45 → BWI 23:18DL 2715 8h 38m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → SNA 08:00 → MSP 13:39DL 2185 1h 02m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 7h 15m 90% 81%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 18:05 → DEN 21:25WN 1538 2h 25m Denver DEN 23:50 → BWI 05:15 +1WN 1501 8h 10m 94% 80%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 17:00 → SJC 18:20WN 3864 3h 20m San Jose SJC 21:40 → BWI 05:45 +1WN 621 9h 45m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 07:05 → PHX 08:30WN 3887 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 09:30 → BWI 16:55WN 1039 6h 50m 100% 79%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 07:00 → DEN 10:25WN 4011 2h 00m Denver DEN 12:25 → BWI 17:51WN 1563 7h 51m 100% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SNA 14:10 → ORD 20:26UA 1352 54m Chicago ORD 21:20 → BWI 00:28 +1UA 675 7h 18m 71% 60%
AmericanDetails → SNA 09:16 → DFW 14:30AA 2644 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:17 → BWI 19:24AA 3004 7h 08m 72% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON