tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:10 am at Santa Ana); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via O'Hare, leaving 11:31, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Charlotte on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SNA 11:31 → ORD 18:00AA 2679 2h 54m Chicago ORD 20:54 → CLT 23:59AA 2976 9h 28m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → SNA 19:32 → PHX 20:57AA 2685 2h 38m Phoenix PHX 23:35 → CLT 06:35 +1AA 849 8h 03m 93% 76%
AmericanDetails → SNA 19:29 → PHX 20:53AA 2471 2h 20m Phoenix PHX 23:13 → CLT 06:08 +1AA 2821 7h 39m 91% 74%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:50 → MSP 18:33DL 2061 1h 41m Minneapolis MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929 7h 54m 90% 71%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177 8h 43m 91% 71%
AmericanDetails → SNA 12:55 → DFW 18:14AA 2669 3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:25 → CLT 00:59 +1AA 2409 9h 04m 97% 65%
UnitedDetails → SNA 13:08 → DEN 16:30UA 2132 1h 15m Denver DEN 17:45 → CLT 23:08UA 616 7h 00m 84% 63%
AmericanDetails → SNA 11:56 → DFW 17:12AA 2672 2h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:10 → CLT 23:38AA 460 8h 42m 97% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SNA 11:31 → ORD 18:00AA 2679 47m Chicago ORD 18:47 → CLT 21:59AA 689 7h 28m 58% 46%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 51m Atlanta ATL 20:40 → CLT 21:57DL 3139 6h 42m 57% 37%
AmericanDetails → SNA 12:55 → DFW 18:14AA 2669 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:01 → CLT 22:33AA 3002 6h 38m 50% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON