tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via O'Hare, leaving 11:31, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SNA 11:31 → ORD 18:00AA 2679 3h 04m Chicago ORD 21:04 → DCA 00:14 +1AA 514 9h 43m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:50 → MSP 18:33DL 2061 1h 57m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961 8h 06m 93% 77%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 1h 51m Chicago ORD 15:00 → DCA 18:11UA 1941 8h 26m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → SNA 11:40 → DTW 19:06DL 1856 2h 18m Detroit DTW 21:24 → DCA 22:59DL 2073 8h 19m 95% 75%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:45 → ORD 14:08AA 2590 2h 50m Chicago ORD 16:58 → DCA 20:13AA 2769 9h 28m 95% 74%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950 8h 52m 95% 73%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537 8h 37m 92% 73%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:37 → ORD 16:53UA 2426 2h 52m Chicago ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160 9h 17m 93% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 51m Chicago ORD 14:00 → DCA 17:12UA 1314 7h 27m 69% 56%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:45 → ORD 14:08AA 2590 50m Chicago ORD 14:58 → DCA 18:17AA 2680 7h 32m 69% 52%
AmericanDetails → SNA 12:32 → JFK 21:04AA 2459 56m New York JFK 22:00 → DCA 23:31AA 4336 · flown by Republic 7h 59m 65% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON