Today: UA 513 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–24%.

Safest bet today UA 513 SNA 06:45 → DEN 10:16 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 3207 SNA 14:35 → DEN 17:56 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 513 United Flight history →	SNA 06:45	DEN 10:16	11%	4%	0.5%	96%
WN 4011 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 07:00	DEN 10:25	11%	2%	0.5%	98%
UA 323 United	SNA 07:00	DEN 10:45	12%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 2438 Southwest	SNA 07:45	DEN 11:06	12%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 489 United Flight history →	SNA 08:45	DEN 12:09	14%	6%	0.4%	92%
UA 2843 United Flight history →	SNA 10:20	DEN 13:43	14%	4%	0.4%	99%worse than usual
F9 4372 Frontier Flight history →	SNA 11:38	DEN 15:07	19%	6%	0.6%	86%
WN 379 Southwest	SNA 20:00	DEN 23:21	19%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 3988 Southwest	SNA 17:10	DEN 20:31	21%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 4508 Southwest	SNA 11:06	DEN 14:27	22%	4%	0.4%	no record
WN 2649 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 19:50	DEN 23:10	22%	5%	0.5%	62%
UA 2649 United Flight history →	SNA 16:00	DEN 19:20	22%	5%	0.6%	61%
UA 2656 United Flight history →	SNA 18:26	DEN 21:47	22%	6%	0.6%	88%
UA 1048 United	SNA 16:06	DEN 19:27	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1538 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 18:05	DEN 21:25	24%	4%	0.5%	76%
WN 187 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 10:55	DEN 14:10	24%	4%	0.4%	77%
UA 680 United	SNA 13:02	DEN 16:40	26%	7%	0.4%	no record
UA 2132 United Flight history →	SNA 13:08	DEN 16:30	26%	7%	0.4%	76%
WN 3207 Southwest	SNA 14:35	DEN 17:56	28%	4%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON