tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1382 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 1382 SNA 06:46 → DFW 12:02 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2684 SNA 14:24 → DFW 19:44 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time
Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 1382 American Flight history → SNA 06:46 DFW 12:02 11% 3% 3.2% 89%
AA 2372 American Flight history → SNA 08:01 DFW 13:15 16% 4% 3.2% 82%
AA 2596 American Flight history → SNA 07:59 DFW 13:07 16% 4% 3.6% 86%
AA 2680 American Flight history → SNA 10:25 DFW 15:39 21% 5% 4.4% 88%
AA 2644 American Flight history → SNA 09:16 DFW 14:30 21% 5% 4.4% 86%
AA 848 American SNA 09:11 DFW 14:19 22% 5% 4.4% no record
AA 2672 American Flight history → SNA 11:56 DFW 17:12 27% 6% 3.6% 84%worse than usual
AA 2668 American Flight history → SNA 18:39 DFW 23:46 30% 8% 2.7% 77%
AA 2669 American Flight history → SNA 12:55 DFW 18:14 30% 7% 2.7% 58%
F9 4652 Frontier SNA 15:32 DFW 20:52 34% 14% 0.8% no record
AA 2688 American Flight history → SNA 16:34 DFW 21:49 35% 8% 2.3% 67%
AA 2684 American Flight history → SNA 14:24 DFW 19:44 35% 8% 2.7% 78%worse than usual
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON