Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:00 pm at Santa Ana); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29% (calm day: 17%). Best bet: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:03, 80% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SNA 17:03 → SLC 19:58DL 1277	3h 52m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:50 → DTW 05:12 +1DL 2841	9h 09m	99%	80%
United Details →	SNA 18:20 → SFO 19:51UA 2657	2h 44m San Francisco	SFO 22:35 → DTW 06:12 +1UA 1986	8h 52m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	SNA 19:59 → LAS 21:17DL 4179 · flown by SkyWest	1h 53m Las Vegas	LAS 23:10 → DTW 06:03 +1DL 502	7h 04m	91%	70%
Delta Details →	SNA 17:36 → SEA 20:29DL 3999 · flown by SkyWest	2h 46m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → DTW 06:28 +1DL 810	9h 52m	97%	66%
Delta Details →	SNA 19:10 → SLC 22:09DL 3856 · flown by SkyWest	1h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:37 → DTW 05:08 +1DL 8802	6h 58m	82%	64%
Frontier Details →	SNA 16:27 → LAS 17:50F9 3738	3h 59m Las Vegas	LAS 21:49 → DTW 04:49 +1F9 2802	9h 22m	98%	62%
Alaska Details →	SNA 17:32 → SEA 20:20AS 774	1h 59m Seattle	SEA 22:19 → DTW 05:26 +1AS 315	8h 54m	94%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON