Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2186 at 21:15 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 2186 SNA 21:15 → EWR 05:33 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1559 SNA 12:29 → EWR 20:56 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2186 United Flight history →	SNA 21:15	EWR 05:33	12%	3%	1.3%	90%
UA 661 United Flight history →	SNA 06:45	EWR 15:21	15%	3%	1.3%	91%
UA 1559 United Flight history →	SNA 12:29	EWR 20:56	37%	18%	1.2%	64%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SNA 19:10 → SLC 22:09DL 3856 · flown by SkyWest	1h 29m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038	7h 50m	85%	66%
United Details →	SNA 14:10 → ORD 20:26UA 1352	1h 04m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209	7h 43m	78%	60%
United Details →	SNA 06:45 → DEN 10:16UA 513	1h 21m Denver	DEN 11:37 → EWR 17:31UA 1233	7h 46m	94%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON