tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via SFO, leaving 16:12, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 16:12 → SFO 17:50UA 5351 · flown by SkyWest 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 21:15 → FLL 05:59 +1UA 1230 10h 47m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SNA 07:00 → SEA 09:53DL 3695 · flown by SkyWest 3h 07m Seattle SEA 13:00 → FLL 21:52DL 338 11h 52m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → DEN 10:16UA 513 3h 41m Denver DEN 13:57 → FLL 20:04UA 1384 10h 19m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → SNA 11:40 → DTW 19:06DL 1856 1h 38m Detroit DTW 20:44 → FLL 23:42DL 2296 9h 02m 93% 75%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 3h 28m Houston IAH 16:35 → FLL 20:22UA 277 9h 37m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:45 → ORD 14:08AA 2590 2h 54m Chicago ORD 17:02 → FLL 21:27AA 2881 10h 42m 97% 74%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 06:45 → DAL 11:55WN 4320 2h 40m Dallas DAL 14:35 → FLL 18:28WN 284 8h 43m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → FLL 19:43DL 1670 9h 58m 97% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SNA 14:00 → ATL 21:38DL 329 1h 07m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229 7h 39m 75% 56%
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:04 → IAH 17:38UA 2044 48m Houston IAH 18:26 → FLL 22:04UA 1956 7h 00m 63% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON