Today: UA 700 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–28%.

Safest bet today UA 700 SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 2050 SNA 11:58 → IAH 17:20 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 700 United Flight history →	SNA 07:45	IAH 13:07	15%	3%	0.5%	93%
UA 2044 United Flight history →	SNA 12:04	IAH 17:37	26%	4%	0.5%	74%
UA 643 United Flight history →	SNA 15:05	IAH 20:27	26%	4%	0.5%	87%worse than usual
UA 2050 United Flight history →	SNA 11:58	IAH 17:20	28%	4%	0.5%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON