Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 19:10, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day


DL 556 Delta Flight history →	SNA 21:00	JFK 05:27	9%	3%	1.2%	89%
AA 2683 American Flight history →	SNA 11:48	JFK 20:29	33%	10%	1.2%	67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SNA 19:59 → LAS 21:17DL 4179 · flown by SkyWest	2h 13m Las Vegas	LAS 23:30 → JFK 07:25 +1DL 498	8h 26m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	SNA 17:36 → SEA 20:29DL 3999 · flown by SkyWest	2h 11m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → JFK 06:50 +1DL 452	10h 14m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	SNA 19:10 → SLC 22:09DL 3856 · flown by SkyWest	1h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:59 → JFK 06:18 +1DL 705	8h 08m	94%	82%
Delta Details →	SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 16:55 → JFK 19:48DL 2378	10h 03m	96%	81%
American Details →	SNA 16:30 → PHX 17:56AA 2659	3h 54m Phoenix	PHX 21:50 → JFK 05:47 +1AA 1587	10h 17m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	SNA 11:25 → SEA 14:25DL 3966 · flown by SkyWest	1h 35m Seattle	SEA 16:00 → JFK 00:21 +1DL 461	9h 56m	96%	78%
Alaska Details →	SNA 17:32 → SEA 20:20AS 774	2h 55m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → JFK 07:38 +1AS 22	11h 06m	99%	77%
Alaska Details →	SNA 07:00 → PDX 09:24AS 750	1h 23m Portland	PDX 10:47 → JFK 19:23AS 18	9h 23m	99%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SNA 19:32 → PHX 20:57AA 2685	53m Phoenix	PHX 21:50 → JFK 05:47 +1AA 1587	7h 15m	59%	49%
American Details →	SNA 13:24 → PHX 14:50AA 3171	1h 01m Phoenix	PHX 15:51 → JFK 23:58AA 832	7h 34m	65%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON