Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Today: WN 4415 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–33%.

Safest bet today WN 4415 SNA 06:46 → LAS 08:01 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3738 SNA 16:25 → LAS 17:49 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4415 Southwest	SNA 06:46	LAS 08:01	5%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 4296 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 07:45	LAS 09:05	8%	1%	0.8%	100%
WN 4036 Southwest	SNA 07:51	LAS 09:06	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1849 Southwest	SNA 10:39	LAS 11:54	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2218 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 09:00	LAS 10:10	15%	2%	0.7%	92%
WN 3708 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 10:25	LAS 11:35	16%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 4078 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 10:35	LAS 11:54	16%	6%	0.7%	87%
WN 2369 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 20:40	LAS 21:55	19%	4%	0.6%	78%
WN 2250 Southwest	SNA 12:34	LAS 13:49	20%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 4179 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 19:59	LAS 21:17	20%	8%	0.9%	83%
WN 3994 Southwest	SNA 17:35	LAS 18:50	21%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 2307 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 18:00	LAS 19:15	22%	6%	0.6%	74%
WN 2187 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 17:00	LAS 18:10	22%	6%	0.6%	57%
WN 2274 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 14:00	LAS 15:20	23%	5%	0.6%	79%
WN 2436 Southwest	SNA 13:40	LAS 14:55	23%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2477 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 19:00	LAS 20:10	24%	6%	0.6%	67%
WN 854 Southwest	SNA 16:15	LAS 17:30	25%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3846 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 16:00	LAS 17:15	25%	5%	0.6%	71%
F9 3738 Frontier Flight history →	SNA 16:25	LAS 17:49	33%	13%	0.7%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON