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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Detroit, leaving 11:40, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 42% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SNA 11:40 → DTW 19:06DL 1856 2h 44m Detroit DTW 21:50 → LGA 23:40DL 2603 9h 00m 95% 76%
DeltaDetails → SNA 08:00 → MSP 13:39DL 2185 1h 51m Minneapolis MSP 15:30 → LGA 19:18DL 2732 8h 18m 94% 71%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:50 → MSP 18:33DL 2061 1h 25m Minneapolis MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733 7h 50m 89% 70%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434 10h 42m 98% 69%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 2h 17m Denver DEN 16:00 → LGA 21:54UA 2168 8h 34m 100% 63%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → DEN 10:16UA 513 3h 43m Denver DEN 13:59 → LGA 19:53UA 1579 10h 08m 100% 62%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 2h 03m Atlanta ATL 21:52 → LGA 23:59DL 9961 8h 44m 90% 62%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:37 → ORD 16:53UA 2426 3h 14m Chicago ORD 20:07 → LGA 23:24UA 2827 9h 47m 97% 60%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SNA 07:00 → DEN 10:25WN 4011 50m Denver DEN 11:15 → LGA 16:55WN 4441 6h 55m 58% 33%
AmericanDetails → SNA 12:55 → DFW 18:14AA 2669 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:00 → LGA 23:23AA 1375 7h 28m 56% 33%
AmericanDetails → SNA 11:56 → DFW 17:12AA 2672 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:01 → LGA 22:24AA 2570 7h 28m 42% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON