Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:28 am at Santa Ana)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 27% (calm day: 14%). Best bet: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 18:30, 84% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SNA 18:30 → PHX 19:55WN 3088	3h 10m Phoenix	PHX 23:05 → MCO 06:20 +1WN 4508	8h 50m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	SNA 17:03 → SLC 19:58DL 1277	3h 38m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069	9h 57m	99%	83%
Southwest Details →	SNA 18:45 → SMF 20:10WN 3872	2h 20m Sacramento	SMF 22:30 → MCO 06:34 +1WN 3943	8h 49m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	SNA 17:36 → SEA 20:29DL 3999 · flown by SkyWest	2h 46m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → MCO 07:40 +1DL 448	11h 04m	97%	80%
Southwest Details →	SNA 19:00 → LAS 20:10WN 2477	2h 40m Las Vegas	LAS 22:50 → MCO 06:25 +1WN 4590	8h 25m	100%	77%
Alaska Details →	SNA 14:45 → SEA 17:32AS 760	3h 55m Seattle	SEA 21:27 → MCO 05:48 +1AS 390	12h 03m	100%	75%
Southwest Details →	SNA 18:00 → LAS 19:15WN 2307	3h 35m Las Vegas	LAS 22:50 → MCO 06:15 +1WN 2334	9h 15m	100%	74%
Delta Details →	SNA 08:00 → MSP 13:39DL 2185	1h 51m Minneapolis	MSP 15:30 → MCO 20:02DL 1885	9h 02m	92%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SNA 13:28 → PHX 15:01AA 2454	47m Phoenix	PHX 15:48 → MCO 23:06AA 2054	6h 38m	37%	24%
American Details →	SNA 14:24 → DFW 19:44AA 2684	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:35 → MCO 00:21 +1AA 1336	6h 57m	34%	19%
Southwest Details →	SNA 11:50 → AUS 16:50WN 345	46m Austin	AUS 17:36 → MCO 21:12WN 370	6h 22m	23%	13%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON