Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:41 am at Santa Ana)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Oakland, leaving 20:30, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SNA 20:30 → OAK 22:00WN 312	1h 55m Oakland	OAK 23:55 → MDW 06:00 +1WN 3059	7h 30m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	SNA 18:25 → SJC 19:40WN 342	3h 20m San Jose	SJC 23:00 → MDW 05:09 +1WN 3824	8h 44m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	SNA 18:45 → SMF 20:10WN 3872	3h 40m Sacramento	SMF 23:50 → MDW 05:45 +1WN 3802	9h 00m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	SNA 19:55 → SJC 21:10WN 4936	1h 45m San Jose	SJC 22:55 → MDW 05:00 +1WN 3886	7h 05m	95%	81%
Southwest Details →	SNA 19:00 → LAS 20:10WN 2477	3h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 23:55 → MDW 05:25 +1WN 2276	8h 25m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	SNA 11:50 → PHX 13:20WN 4944	1h 15m Phoenix	PHX 14:35 → MDW 19:55WN 3297	6h 05m	100%	77%
Southwest Details →	SNA 07:05 → PHX 08:30WN 3887	1h 31m Phoenix	PHX 10:01 → MDW 15:31WN 4245	6h 26m	100%	76%
Southwest Details →	SNA 07:45 → LAS 09:05WN 4296	2h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 11:20 → MDW 16:50WN 4506	7h 05m	100%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SNA 14:00 → LAS 15:20WN 2274	1h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 16:20 → MDW 21:54WN 2840	5h 54m	62%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON