Today: DL 2185 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Safest bet today DL 2185 SNA 08:00 → MSP 13:39 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 2061 SNA 12:50 → MSP 18:33 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2185 Delta Flight history →	SNA 08:00	MSP 13:39	16%	3%	0.4%	85%
DL 626 Delta	SNA 12:54	MSP 18:33	26%	4%	0.4%	no record
DL 2061 Delta Flight history →	SNA 12:50	MSP 18:33	26%	4%	0.4%	81%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SNA 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1185	57m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	5h 25m	81%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON