Today: UA 587 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–31%.

Safest bet today UA 587 SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 1352 SNA 14:10 → ORD 20:26 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 587 United Flight history →	SNA 06:45	ORD 13:09	11%	2%	0.4%	87%
AA 2590 American Flight history →	SNA 07:45	ORD 14:08	15%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 2426 United Flight history →	SNA 10:37	ORD 16:53	21%	4%	0.3%	79%
AA 2640 American Flight history →	SNA 15:11	ORD 21:50	24%	6%	0.6%	67%
AA 2679 American Flight history →	SNA 11:31	ORD 18:00	25%	5%	0.6%	77%
AA 660 American	SNA 15:27	ORD 21:33	26%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 698 American	SNA 11:41	ORD 17:48	26%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1352 United Flight history →	SNA 14:10	ORD 20:26	31%	4%	0.3%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON