Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3887 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 3887 SNA 07:05 → PHX 08:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AA 3171 SNA 13:24 → PHX 14:50 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3887 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 07:05	PHX 08:30	8%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 4003 Southwest	SNA 07:06	PHX 08:29	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3290 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 08:35	PHX 09:50	12%	1%	0.5%	94%
AA 628 American Flight history →	SNA 06:46	PHX 08:16	14%	3%	0.9%	88%
WN 4004 Southwest	SNA 10:45	PHX 12:08	18%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3857 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 20:45	PHX 22:05	20%	3%	0.5%	80%
F9 1720 Frontier Flight history →	SNA 09:29	PHX 11:04	20%	7%	1.2%	85%
WN 4944 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 11:50	PHX 13:20	22%	3%	0.5%	100%worse than usual
WN 3356 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 16:00	PHX 17:25	22%	4%	0.5%	81%
WN 3329 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 11:05	PHX 12:25	22%	2%	0.5%	81%
AA 2660 American Flight history →	SNA 09:49	PHX 11:12	23%	4%	0.8%	93%worse than usual
AA 2015 American	SNA 10:00	PHX 11:24	23%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 4514 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 17:15	PHX 18:35	26%	6%	0.5%	52%
WN 3088 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 18:30	PHX 19:55	26%	5%	0.5%	70%
AA 2659 American Flight history →	SNA 16:30	PHX 17:56	31%	5%	0.8%	80%worse than usual
AA 2655 American Flight history →	SNA 12:35	PHX 14:00	34%	6%	0.8%	66%
AA 2685 American Flight history →	SNA 19:32	PHX 20:57	34%	7%	0.8%	71%
AA 3171 American Flight history →	SNA 13:24	PHX 14:50	35%	6%	0.8%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON