Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Tomorrow: AS 3251 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day AS 3251 SNA 06:45 → SFO 08:30 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 3269 SNA 14:46 → SFO 16:20 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 19% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3251 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 06:45	SFO 08:30	9%	4%	0.8%	93%
UA 1604 United Flight history →	SNA 07:00	SFO 08:31	13%	4%	0.8%	69%
UA 653 United	SNA 07:26	SFO 08:55	15%	5%	0.8%	no record
OO 5616 SkyWest	SNA 09:51	SFO 11:42	17%	8%	0.8%	no record
AS 3495 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 20:25	SFO 22:03	20%	7%	1.6%	32%
AS 561 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 13:06	SFO 14:51	21%	8%	0.8%	50%
OO 3054 SkyWest	SNA 09:11	SFO 10:48	22%	7%	0.8%	no record
AS 3248 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 18:03	SFO 19:33	22%	8%	0.9%	65%
UA 5562 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 09:45	SFO 11:21	23%	8%	0.8%	33%
AS 3486 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 10:50	SFO 12:27	23%	9%	0.8%	49%
UA 5351 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 16:12	SFO 17:50	23%	9%	0.8%	67%
UA 2657 United Flight history →	SNA 18:20	SFO 19:51	24%	8%	0.8%	41%
AS 3342 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 09:00	SFO 10:36	25%	8%	0.8%	40%
UA 5339 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 19:27	SFO 21:05	25%	8%	1.3%	50%
F9 3581 Frontier Flight history →	SNA 13:16	SFO 14:58	25%	10%	1.2%	61%
UA 2823 United Flight history →	SNA 14:47	SFO 16:18	26%	9%	0.7%	35%
AS 3269 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 14:46	SFO 16:20	26%	10%	0.8%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON