Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Today: DL 1277 at 17:03 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–27%.

Safest bet today DL 1277 SNA 17:03 → SLC 19:58 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest DL 3856 SNA 19:10 → SLC 22:09 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1277 Delta Flight history →	SNA 17:03	SLC 19:58	15%	7%	0.6%	86%
DL 1185 Delta Flight history →	SNA 07:15	SLC 10:13	16%	4%	0.4%	91%
DL 1671 Delta	SNA 13:46	SLC 16:41	17%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 1159 Delta Flight history →	SNA 13:44	SLC 16:40	18%	6%	0.6%	72%
DL 1198 Delta Flight history →	SNA 09:50	SLC 12:46	20%	4%	0.4%	92%worse than usual
OO 3730 SkyWest	SNA 19:01	SLC 22:00	26%	7%	0.8%	no record
DL 3856 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 19:10	SLC 22:09	27%	7%	0.7%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON