Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 25–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 3467 SNA 11:48 → STS 13:37 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest OO 3057 SNA 16:10 → STS 17:55 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3467 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 11:48	STS 13:37	25%	11%	0.6%	82%
OO 3053 SkyWest	SNA 12:42	STS 14:26	26%	9%	0.7%	no record
AS 3432 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 19:14	STS 21:01	28%	6%	0.8%	83%worse than usual
OO 3057 SkyWest	SNA 16:10	STS 17:55	31%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON