Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:47 pm at Sarasota/Bradenton); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Charlotte, leaving 17:21, is the safest bet: 59% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 43% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SRQ 17:21 → CLT 19:29AA 5627 · flown by PSA	2h 58m Charlotte	CLT 22:27 → DCA 23:53AA 1269	6h 32m	98%	59%
Delta Details →	SRQ 18:22 → ATL 20:13DL 3109	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	5h 30m	88%	59%
Southwest Details →	SRQ 17:45 → MDW 19:25WN 3879	1h 20m Chicago	MDW 20:45 → DCA 23:44WN 2406	5h 59m	79%	57%
American Details →	SRQ 17:01 → DFW 18:21AA 2679	1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077	6h 58m	77%	48%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SRQ 18:30 → BNA 19:25WN 4425	50m Nashville	BNA 20:15 → DCA 23:03WN 4843	4h 33m	43%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON