Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1571 at 09:24 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 1571 STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 4474 STL 14:21 → ATL 17:15 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1571 Delta Flight history →	STL 09:24	ATL 12:02	7%	2%	0.8%	94%
WN 236 Southwest Flight history →	STL 10:00	ATL 12:35	8%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1524 Delta Flight history →	STL 06:00	ATL 08:37	8%	3%	1.1%	96%
DL 1536 Delta Flight history →	STL 07:08	ATL 09:45	9%	3%	0.8%	97%
WN 4034 Southwest	STL 10:20	ATL 13:12	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1400 Delta Flight history →	STL 10:51	ATL 13:25	9%	4%	0.7%	88%
DL 2700 Delta Flight history →	STL 15:58	ATL 18:43	14%	5%	0.8%	87%
DL 566 Delta Flight history →	STL 13:22	ATL 16:07	15%	5%	0.8%	86%
DL 543 Delta Flight history →	STL 16:54	ATL 19:45	17%	6%	0.7%	81%
DL 1393 Delta Flight history →	STL 18:58	ATL 21:44	18%	5%	0.7%	83%
WN 3883 Southwest Flight history →	STL 20:05	ATL 22:45	19%	9%	0.6%	70%
WN 2244 Southwest	STL 19:50	ATL 22:43	22%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 239 Southwest	STL 16:20	ATL 19:13	24%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3882 Southwest Flight history →	STL 16:25	ATL 19:00	28%	6%	0.6%	45%
F9 4474 Frontier Flight history →	STL 14:21	ATL 17:15	37%	16%	1.0%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON