Today looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 14–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 2861 STL 14:30 → BNA 15:46 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 694 STL 17:35 → BNA 18:45 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2861 Southwest	STL 14:30	BNA 15:46	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3888 Southwest Flight history →	STL 14:30	BNA 15:40	16%	3%	0.5%	76%
WN 753 Southwest	STL 17:50	BNA 19:07	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 377 Southwest	STL 11:40	BNA 12:56	16%	3%	0.1%	no record
WN 1577 Southwest	STL 13:05	BNA 14:21	16%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 482 Southwest Flight history →	STL 19:10	BNA 20:15	20%	4%	0.4%	57%
WN 694 Southwest Flight history →	STL 17:35	BNA 18:45	20%	4%	0.5%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON