Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 858 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 858 STL 05:10 → CLT 08:03 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2731 STL 18:13 → CLT 21:11 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 858 American Flight history →	STL 05:10	CLT 08:03	7%	4%	0.6%	94%
AA 2733 American Flight history →	STL 09:25	CLT 12:17	9%	4%	0.5%	90%
AA 2497 American Flight history →	STL 09:25	CLT 12:16	10%	5%	0.5%	87%
AA 712 American Flight history →	STL 07:32	CLT 10:30	10%	4%	0.5%	83%
AA 1515 American Flight history →	STL 04:58	CLT 07:48	11%	6%	0.6%	94%
AA 3096 American Flight history →	STL 11:04	CLT 13:55	13%	6%	1.3%	86%
AA 2717 American Flight history →	STL 12:35	CLT 15:33	15%	6%	1.3%	71%
OH 5021 PSA	STL 16:25	CLT 19:20	16%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 3690 Southwest	STL 17:35	CLT 20:23	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4937 Southwest Flight history →	STL 15:40	CLT 18:30	17%	4%	0.5%	52%
AA 2731 American Flight history →	STL 18:13	CLT 21:11	23%	7%	1.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON