Today: WN 4590 at 10:25 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–23%.

Safest bet today WN 4590 STL 10:25 → CMH 12:57 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 264 STL 19:55 → CMH 22:27 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4590 Southwest	STL 10:25	CMH 12:57	7%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 3902 Southwest Flight history →	STL 09:55	CMH 12:15	8%	2%	0.1%	92%
WN 264 Southwest	STL 19:55	CMH 22:27	23%	5%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON