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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4055 at 05:11 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 4055 STL 05:11 → DAL 07:00 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3904 STL 21:50 → DAL 23:30 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time
Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 4055 Southwest STL 05:11 DAL 07:00 3% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 1396 Southwest Flight history → STL 05:05 DAL 06:45 4% 1% 0.7% 90%
WN 987 Southwest STL 08:31 DAL 10:20 7% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 23 Southwest Flight history → STL 08:10 DAL 09:50 8% 2% 0.6% 72%
WN 4196 Southwest Flight history → STL 09:45 DAL 11:25 9% 2% 0.6% 92%
WN 1322 Southwest Flight history → STL 14:15 DAL 15:55 15% 3% 0.6% 64%
WN 3597 Southwest Flight history → STL 19:10 DAL 20:50 20% 5% 0.6% 53%
WN 1417 Southwest Flight history → STL 17:30 DAL 19:10 20% 4% 0.6% 36%
WN 3904 Southwest Flight history → STL 21:50 DAL 23:30 21% 5% 0.6% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON