Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2261 at 05:32 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2261 STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2761 STL 19:08 → DFW 21:04 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2261 American Flight history →	STL 05:32	DFW 07:30	8%	4%	0.7%	92%
AA 3944 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	STL 12:54	DFW 14:57	13%	4%	0.7%	88%
AA 537 American Flight history →	STL 07:07	DFW 09:06	14%	6%	0.6%	83%
AA 3333 American	STL 10:16	DFW 12:23	15%	6%	1.8%	no record
AA 3194 American Flight history →	STL 08:38	DFW 10:37	16%	5%	1.3%	73%
AA 1410 American Flight history →	STL 09:44	DFW 11:38	16%	6%	1.3%	82%
AA 5655 American flown by PSA Flight history →	STL 13:14	DFW 15:10	22%	9%	0.7%	63%
AA 2712 American Flight history →	STL 17:13	DFW 19:15	28%	9%	1.3%	32%
AA 1363 American Flight history →	STL 15:24	DFW 17:27	30%	10%	1.3%	49%
AA 2491 American Flight history →	STL 19:22	DFW 21:20	31%	9%	1.3%	37%
AA 2761 American	STL 19:08	DFW 21:04	33%	10%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON