tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:54 am at St Louis)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4506 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record STL 08:43 IAD 11:55 18% 8% 0.3% 82%
UA 4454 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record STL 12:55 IAD 16:07 28% 16% 1.1% 72%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → STL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 2805 1h 10m Chicago ORD 08:40 → IAD 11:52UA 2277 4h 52m 98% 92%
UnitedDetails → STL 07:20 → ORD 09:00UA 4423 · flown by GoJet 2h 07m Chicago ORD 11:07 → IAD 14:12UA 1869 5h 52m 96% 89%
UnitedDetails → STL 09:20 → ORD 10:52UA 5572 · flown by SkyWest 2h 38m Chicago ORD 13:30 → IAD 16:30UA 2794 6h 10m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:00 → ORD 09:35UA 4183 · flown by GoJet 3h 34m Chicago ORD 13:09 → IAD 16:14UA 1128 7h 14m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → STL 10:20 → ORD 11:52UA 4517 · flown by GoJet 3h 03m Chicago ORD 14:55 → IAD 17:56UA 587 6h 36m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:35 → IAH 10:50UA 4579 · flown by GoJet 1h 23m Houston IAH 12:13 → IAD 16:30UA 2366 6h 55m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:37DL 1524 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 7h 01m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → STL 16:54 → ATL 19:45DL 543 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 6h 47m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 19:05 → ORD 20:39UA 4165 · flown by GoJet 1h 01m Chicago ORD 21:40 → IAD 00:45 +1UA 2766 4h 40m 70% 55%
UnitedDetails → STL 16:48 → DEN 18:23UA 1483 50m Denver DEN 19:13 → IAD 00:45 +1UA 1412 6h 57m 75% 55%
UnitedDetails → STL 15:22 → ORD 17:00UA 4452 · flown by GoJet 1h 12m Chicago ORD 18:12 → IAD 21:22UA 2202 5h 00m 72% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON