Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:08 pm at St Louis); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 21% on a calm day. Safest: UA 652 at 15:10, 24%.

Nonstops today


UA 652 United	STL 15:10	IAH 17:39	24%	6%	0.2%	no record
UA 5580 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STL 14:57	IAH 17:16	39%	14%	0.2%	64%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	STL 13:13 → ORD 14:43UA 1382	3h 02m Chicago	ORD 17:45 → IAH 20:50UA 1954	7h 37m	96%	79%
United Details →	STL 13:38 → DEN 15:00UA 1380	3h 05m Denver	DEN 18:05 → IAH 21:36UA 2791	7h 58m	97%	74%
United Details →	STL 17:59 → ORD 19:30UA 1639	2h 10m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → IAH 00:34 +1UA 2665	6h 35m	89%	74%
Delta Details →	STL 14:30 → SLC 16:37DL 2455	1h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50DL 2514	7h 20m	85%	72%
Delta Details →	STL 16:54 → ATL 19:45DL 543	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	7h 03m	98%	69%
Delta Details →	STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 19:01 → IAH 20:16DL 2327	6h 54m	97%	65%
United Details →	STL 13:25 → IAD 16:19UA 4454 · flown by GoJet	1h 40m Dulles	IAD 17:59 → IAH 20:25UA 2217	7h 00m	88%	63%
United Details →	STL 16:48 → DEN 18:23UA 1483	2h 47m Denver	DEN 21:10 → IAH 00:41 +1UA 1253	7h 53m	86%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	STL 16:48 → DEN 18:23UA 1483	1h 12m Denver	DEN 19:35 → IAH 23:06UA 475	6h 18m	70%	52%
Delta Details →	STL 15:57 → MSP 17:37DL 4167 · flown by SkyWest	1h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 18:40 → IAH 21:35DL 2683	5h 38m	64%	48%
American Details →	STL 13:14 → DFW 15:10AA 5655 · flown by PSA	1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:14 → IAH 17:25AA 2438	4h 11m	59%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON