Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2493 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 2493 STL 06:00 → LAX 07:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2269 STL 21:55 → LAX 23:50 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2493 Southwest	STL 06:00	LAX 07:55	5%	1%	0.4%	no record
AA 6293 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STL 06:37	LAX 08:46	10%	4%	0.6%	88%
AA 6480 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STL 06:15	LAX 08:24	13%	4%	0.6%	86%
WN 3937 Southwest Flight history →	STL 08:10	LAX 10:05	13%	2%	0.4%	85%
WN 2269 Southwest Flight history →	STL 21:55	LAX 23:50	26%	5%	0.5%	33%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	STL 05:35 → DEN 06:50WN 3909	1h 00m Denver	DEN 07:50 → LAX 09:20WN 1568	5h 45m	97%	82%
Southwest Details →	STL 05:45 → PHX 06:55WN 3967	1h 00m Phoenix	PHX 07:55 → LAX 09:20WN 2427	5h 35m	96%	82%
Southwest Details →	STL 13:20 → PHX 14:30WN 3968	1h 20m Phoenix	PHX 15:50 → LAX 17:10WN 2388	5h 50m	91%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON