Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: WN 882 at 05:40, 6%.

Safest bet that day WN 882 STL 05:40 → LGA 09:04 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4085 STL 15:35 → LGA 18:59 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Weather 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 882 Southwest	STL 05:40	LGA 09:04	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4939 Southwest Flight history →	STL 05:40	LGA 09:00	6%	1%	0.7%	96%
YX 4450 Republic	STL 05:58	LGA 09:33	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 4669 American flown by Republic Flight history →	STL 06:00	LGA 09:35	8%	2%	0.7%	90%
YX 4443 Republic	STL 09:17	LGA 12:53	17%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 1373 Southwest Flight history →	STL 11:00	LGA 14:25	30%	5%	0.6%	82%worse than usual
WN 479 Southwest	STL 11:05	LGA 14:29	31%	5%	0.7%	no record
YX 4449 Republic	STL 16:07	LGA 19:43	33%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 4509 American flown by Republic Flight history →	STL 15:20	LGA 18:55	33%	6%	0.7%	71%
WN 4684 Southwest Flight history →	STL 19:55	LGA 23:25	35%	6%	0.6%	41%
WN 4962 Southwest Flight history →	STL 15:25	LGA 18:55	39%	6%	0.6%	63%
WN 4085 Southwest	STL 15:35	LGA 18:59	42%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 4981 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	STL 06:05	LGA 09:38	10%	6%	2.1%	90%
DL 4935 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	STL 17:22	LGA 21:00	21%	13%	18.8%	79%
DL 4839 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	STL 09:22	LGA 12:56	23%	5%	10.4%	77%
DL 4922 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	STL 12:35	LGA 16:09	26%	14%	5.4%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON