Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4622 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 4622 STL 05:00 → MCO 08:22 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2636 STL 16:09 → MCO 19:49 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4622 Southwest	STL 05:00	MCO 08:22	3%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 4358 Southwest Flight history →	STL 05:05	MCO 08:25	4%	1%	0.4%	91%
WN 4091 Southwest	STL 07:50	MCO 11:12	6%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 3947 Southwest Flight history →	STL 09:55	MCO 13:15	8%	3%	0.7%	84%
WN 4092 Southwest	STL 10:25	MCO 13:47	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3950 Southwest Flight history →	STL 20:00	MCO 23:30	19%	11%	1.2%	62%
WN 3949 Southwest Flight history →	STL 18:15	MCO 21:45	20%	14%	1.2%	68%
WN 5049 Southwest Flight history →	STL 16:30	MCO 20:10	20%	13%	1.2%	68%
WN 4094 Southwest	STL 18:10	MCO 21:32	21%	14%	1.2%	no record
WN 3948 Southwest Flight history →	STL 14:50	MCO 18:20	22%	12%	1.2%	36%
WN 4462 Southwest	STL 16:05	MCO 19:27	24%	13%	1.0%	no record
WN 4812 Southwest	STL 19:55	MCO 23:17	25%	13%	1.2%	no record
F9 2636 Frontier Flight history →	STL 16:09	MCO 19:49	27%	21%	2.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON