Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2888 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 2888 STL 05:25 → MDW 06:40 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 596 STL 18:30 → MDW 19:35 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2888 Southwest	STL 05:25	MDW 06:40	2%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 1008 Southwest Flight history →	STL 05:40	MDW 06:45	3%	1%	0.2%	89%
WN 4143 Southwest	STL 10:50	MDW 12:06	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2570 Southwest Flight history →	STL 08:55	MDW 10:00	8%	1%	0.6%	88%
WN 3344 Southwest Flight history →	STL 12:40	MDW 13:45	10%	2%	0.5%	60%
WN 269 Southwest	STL 14:00	MDW 15:15	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3357 Southwest	STL 18:14	MDW 19:29	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3957 Southwest Flight history →	STL 21:55	MDW 23:05	15%	5%	0.5%	67%
WN 556 Southwest Flight history →	STL 15:35	MDW 16:40	16%	3%	0.5%	61%
WN 596 Southwest Flight history →	STL 18:30	MDW 19:35	16%	4%	0.5%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON